Daniel Briere wasted no time in getting his offseason started by shipping out Ivan Provorov for a decent haul of picks and prospects earlier this week.
It was obvious that Briere and the Flyers were going to make some significant changes this summer, and Provorov was one name on the shortlist of trade candidates. Another name on that list? Carter Hart.
There has been a lot of smoke in Philadelphia over the past few days both literally and figuratively in the form of Hart rumors. Once the Provorov trade was completed on Monday, things started to pick up with several teams reportedly being interested in the goaltender.
Hart is entering his age-25 season and has just one year left on his contract before becoming a restricted free agent. He’ll likely be due a bigger payday which may not line up with the Flyers’ new timeline. So, a trade makes sense, right?
Well, probably.
There are plenty of good reasons to trade Hart. You’d be able to get back a pretty good return for a goalie with Hart’s pedigree, especially given the number of teams in need of a netminder. Then there’s the fact that Hart won’t allow the Flyers to properly tank as he’s too good for them to bottom out. His upcoming contract could also be an issue for a rebuilding team. You can go on and on.
Thomas Williams
However, given the history of goaltending in Philadelphia, the Flyers should think twice before trading away Hart.
The Team in Front of Him
If you look at Hart’s career numbers you won’t come away too impressed. He is 84-84-26 with a .906 save percentage and 2.96 goals against average in 201 career games since debuting in 2018. Of 34 goalies that played 150 or more games in that span, Hart’s SV% ranks 25th and his GAA is only one better at 24.
Looking at those numbers and the type of packages that the Flyers could potentially get, you’d want to trade him in a heartbeat. But that doesn’t factor in just how bad the Flyers have been in front of him for nearly his entire career.
Over the past three seasons, the Flyers defensemen with the most ice time were Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Justin Braun, Rasmus Ristolaineen, Nick Seeler, Cam York, and Tony DeAngelo. They all have at least 1,000 minutes at 5-on-5 with Keith Yandle and Philippe Myers not too far behind.
Any goalie would struggle behind that defense and, quite frankly, it’s almost impressive that Hart has been able to keep the Flyers in as many games as he has.
Hart has only played with a competent defense in front of him for one season, and that 2019-20 campaign was shortened due to COVID. Matt Niskanen brought the best out of Provorov up top and the Sanheim-Myers pair looked like a developing duo while Braun, Robert Hagg, and Shayne Gostisbehere rounded out the blue line.
Hart had a career-best .914 SV% and 2.42 GAA while going 24-13-3 that season. Sure, those aren’t elite numbers, but they’re encouraging for a talented goalie with a high ceiling.
He also showed that he can lock in for dominant stretches as he went 11-3-0 with a .929 SV% and a 2.08 GAA from January 8th to the end of the regular season. In the playoffs, Hart put up a .926 SV% while going 9-5, including back-to-back shutouts in the first round.
So, all of that is a roundabout way of saying that you can’t truly judge Hart’s play over the past few years due to the team around him. Does that alone mean you shouldn’t trade him? Nope. But it should be considered before agreeing to any deal that doesn’t meet the proper price tag.
Torts Won’t Let Flyers Tank
We’ve all seen the arguments. Hell, I’ve made the point myself.
The Flyers aren’t going to be able to tank if they have a goalie as good as Hart. But that doesn’t really matter when you have a coach like John Tortorella that is going to get the best out of the roster, no matter how bad it is.
Hart is going to earn the Flyers a handful of extra points if he plays to his potential. He’ll steal a few games here and there, but it’s truly not enough to make that much of a difference.
The Flyers finished with 75 points last season, earning them the seventh pick in the draft. The Coyotes trailed them by five points, the Habs by seven, and then there’s a huge drop-off to the Sharks at 60 points — 15 fewer than the Flyers.
If the Flyers traded Hart before last season, maybe they would’ve dropped down to below the Coyotes. Maybe. Perhaps they drop below the Canadiens and get a top-five pick. That doesn’t seem likely given the way Tortorella coaches, though.
Even when Tortorella took over in Columbus ahead of the Auston Matthews draft, the Blue Jackets finished with 76 points. Granted, that was the fourth-fewest points in the league and they still managed to get Pierre-Luc Dubois third overall.
With Tortorella seemingly having a say in some roster-making decisions, it’d be hard to believe that he’d allow the Flyers to bottom out.
The Timeline
The Flyers’ current timeline to get back into contention is murky at best. They’re going to be bad next season and likely in 2024-25 as well. At best, the Flyers are three years away from competing for a playoff spot and likely a few more from being a true Stanley Cup contender.
By that point, Hart will be in the middle of his next contract. He could be taking up a chunk of money that would be better utilized elsewhere. But that’s still an if.
The thing is that there may not be a timeline to contend without a strong goalie in net. The history of goaltending in Philadelphia is well-known and trading away a potential franchise goalie before he reaches his prime years could come back to haunt the Flyers.
Ultimately, I do believe that trading Hart would be the best move for the Flyers’ rebuild. He is one of their biggest assets and trading him would help fill a prospect cupboard that has been barren in recent years, especially in terms of top-tier talent.
However, it’s not a situation where the Flyers have to trade him. Having a steady presence in net as the backbone of a rebuild could go a long way.
