Dynamic defensemen have largely taken over the NHL’s bluelines.
Players who in the past may have been disregarded or chastised for not being defensively oriented, now have much longer leashes to push the tempo. Everyone wants the next Cale Makar, the next Erik Karlsson; and that is part of what makes Axel Sandin-Pellikka so intriguing to scouts. His ceiling is something close to that.
Sandin-Pellikka started the year very high on draft boards, even being touted as the third-best European skater in the 2023 class by NHL Central Scouting part way through the year. There was talk of him even potentially going in the top-10 and being the first defenseman selected.
His stock has come back to Earth a bit since then, but he still has a very good chance to be among the first 20 players selected come draft day.
Pre-Draft Rankings:
No. 17 By Sportsnet
No. 14 by EliteProspects
No. 7 (European Skaters) by NHL Central Scouting
No.17 by Bob McKenzie
No.21 by Scott Wheeler
Statistics
Sandin-Pellikka can accumulate points, he can use his speed and edgework to open up time and space, which gives him plenty of opportunities to make plays.
On multiple different occasions throughout this year, Sandin-Pellikka caught a defender by surprise with his initial burst of speed through the neutral zone, and was allowed to cut around his defender effortlessly.
This is evident by his production in the Swedish under-20 league, where he was able to pot 16 goals and 20 assists in 31 games with Skellefteå AIK. His over point per game clip placed him 36th in the league, and 5th among defenders.
After moving up to the SHL, his statistics tapered off, which is to be expected for an 18 year old. Five points in 22 games isn’t impressive on paper, but his first full SHL season next year will be a more telling measure of how he stacks up. As well, he started to settle in a bit more near the end of his tenure, and flash his brilliance.
Axel Sandin Pellikka No.5 having some fun in the SHL! #2023NHLDraft #HockeyTwitter pic.twitter.com/93A8QoUD9q
— NHLDraftProspects (@NHLDraftPros) December 2, 2022
He had two very different outcomes in international play as well. His under-18 performances being fantastic, amassing a combined 32 points in 26 games at the U-18 level. However, it was a bit of a struggle for him at the U-20 level, with just two points over 16 games.
What’s there to like?
Sandin-Pellikka is a silky smooth skater on the back end. He has a keen agility to navigate the neutral zone and break into the offensive zone with his head up at speed. In addition to straight line speed, Sandin-Pellikka also uses his skating ability well in tight areas, he is very adept at walking the blue line and getting shots towards the net. He is very shifty, and difficult for defenders to contain because of it.
He is a prototypical power play quarterback, able to survey his options at the point and make incisive plays that give his teammates great looks.
🇺🇸🇸🇪 POWER PLAY GOAL SWEDEN! 🚨 It's a two-goal lead. Noel Nordh deflects Axel Sandin Pellikka's shot into the goal! #u18mensworlds #USASWE @Trekronorse pic.twitter.com/s31F1sMAeV
— IIHF (@IIHFHockey) April 30, 2023
He also picks his spots to jump up into the play smartly, he fills lanes well and doesn’t often get caught in positions where he can’t recover defensively. When he does activate, he has an accurate shot that he can get off quickly and beat goalies clean. He also possesses a poise on the rush that many defensemen do not have, and he has no problem with holding the puck, letting the play develop, and finding his man.
For a smaller sized defender, Sandin-Pellikka also has an ability to surprise opposing players with a jolting hit from time to time. This is something to monitor as he starts to hopefully fill his frame a bit more.
What’s not to like?
Sandin-Pellikka’s biggest issue is his size. He is listed at 5’11, 181 pounds, and he looks every bit of it on the ice. He is only 18, and there is still time for him to fill out, of course, but his body taking the punishment of a full NHL season is a concern at this point.
It’s also pretty clear looking at his statistical drop off from U-18 hockey to U-20 that there are still some things to iron out, from an offensive standpoint, if he wants to dominate at the next level. At times, Sandin-Pellikka can get a little lost skating, he doesn’t make bad passes or decisions per say, he just runs out of time or holds onto the puck for too long.
That tracks with his struggles at higher levels of play, but again, with time that should more than likely sort itself out as he gets his feet wet.
His size also necessitates that Sandin-Pellikka rely more on his positioning to wedge off attackers rather than standing anyone up. That has worked largely so far, but as the game speeds up it will be even harder to do, and the margins of error will get even smaller and smaller. There is a chance he doesn’t adapt well and that causes issues defensively, especially since his speed isn’t exactly blazing fast.
How would he fit in the Flyers’ system?
Keith Jones made it clear in interviews after his hiring as President of Hockey Operations that he is focused on building the blueline first. Sandin-Pellikka would fit the bill, and would fit a need for more dynamic offensive talent on the backend besides Cam York and Travis Sanheim. Another player who can casually provide controlled zone entries the Flyers struggle with.
He would also be a perfect potential solution to the problem of an anemic power play unit that has persisted for years at this point. If Sandin-Pellikka could repeat some of the things he did at Skellefteå for Philadelphia, he could give the Flyers a real weapon on the man advantage.
Can the Flyers actually get him?
Sandin-Pellikka should be available when the Flyers are on the clock at seven, so long as a team in front of them doesn’t decide they need a defenseman, and consider him the best one in this draft. He is projected to go anywhere from just outside the top 10, to the mid-20s, and given the lack of marquee defenders in this draft it is hard to nail down exactly.
If the Flyers wanted to take a defenseman at seven, the options are either Sandin-Pellikka or David Reinbacher. However, I think seven at this point is a bit of a reach for Sandin-Pellikka, mostly because there are a bunch of high quality forwards in the top 10 that the Flyers should be targeting. If there is a trade however that drops the Flyers out of the top-10, he could be a viable option.
What scouts are saying
He’s the best defenceman in the draft,” and he’s just continuously showed me that. I watch the poise, the ability to control the game in every single zone, and seemingly do it with a calm and an ease that is eerily reminiscent of [Hockey Hall of Famer] Sergei Zubov.
“He’s not going to overwhelm you with his blazing skill or any blazing quality, but his brain is advanced, massively.” – Craig Button, TSN
“Sandin Pellikka is an offensively skilled defenseman with impressive hands. He is calm and aware on the ice. He opens space with his hands and controls the puck with good range. He has a good shot and is an agile skater. He combines his hands and agility well to easily escape forechecking or defensive pressure.
“One thing that might keep him lower in our draft ranking is the combination of lacking a separating gear as a skater and being modest in size. We have seen similar defensemen come out of Sweden struggling on the smaller ice, with that frame making it harder for them to defend on the rush.
“Another entertaining thing to point out with Sandin Pellikka though is his physical play. He is good at shutting down players with hard open-ice hits.” – Jimmy Hamrin, EP Rinkside
No additions to the poll today! As our headline suggested, we had a tie for 11th place, so you guys have decided on who’s next up already. Now that’s efficient. We’ll be back with a poll next time.
Previously on the 2023 Community Draft Board…
