Now that Tom Awad‘s GVT is available on Gabriel Desjardins’ BehindtheNet.ca, the novelty of these posts has worn off some. However, I’ll continue trying to put some sort of interesting spin on them.
Rather than simply updating you – you can check them daily – this installment will be the first picture of Peter Laviolette’s impact on the numbers.
Since GVT is cumulative, the total number doesn’t exactly tell you much. But when you look at the stat on a per game basis, trends become easier to spot. I used this method the last time, when I looked at last year, this year, and the VUKOTA projections.
This time, I will be looking at how each player performed in the eyes of GVT on a per game basis under John Stevens and contrasting that with how they have performed for the entire year.
A bit of a disclaimer: This is not an indictment of Stevens or Laviolette, nor is it an endorsement of either. Rather, since the team has played roughly the same number of games under each coach this year, now seemed as good a time as any to compare. In addition, this is but one look at the differences between the team under each coach: A lot of context is necessary to get the full picture, of which I don’t claim to be offering – yet. Instead, this is a look at the players and their GVT contributions, split roughly in half.
With that, jump for tables.
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| NAME | GP | GVT/G | GP | GVT/G | Diff. |
| Ray Emery | 27.1 | 0.081 | 20.1 | 0.000 | 0.081 |
| Danny Syvret | 21 | 0.052 | 13 | -0.008 | 0.060 |
| Jeff Carter | 53 | 0.191 | 26 | 0.135 | 0.056 |
| Kimmo Timonen | 53 | 0.143 | 26 | 0.096 | 0.047 |
| Ian Laperriere | 53 | 0.019 | 26 | -0.023 | 0.042 |
| Simon Gagne | 29 | 0.097 | 9 | 0.056 | 0.041 |
| Danny Briere | 46 | 0.126 | 19 | 0.090 | 0.037 |
| Blair Betts | 34 | 0.071 | 13 | 0.039 | 0.032 |
| Dan Carcillo | 49 | 0.045 | 26 | 0.019 | 0.026 |
| Arron Asham | 46 | 0.043 | 19 | 0.021 | 0.022 |
| Chris Pronger | 53 | 0.232 | 26 | 0.215 | 0.017 |
| Mike Richards | 53 | 0.168 | 26 | 0.165 | 0.003 |
| Ole-Kristian Tollefsen | 18 | 0.022 | 9 | 0.022 | 0.000 |
| Jared Ross | 3 | -0.067 | 3 | -0.067 | 0.000 |
| Riley Cote | 12 | -0.025 | 8 | -0.025 | 0.000 |
| Darroll Powe | 37 | 0.035 | 19 | 0.037 | -0.002 |
| Andreas Nodl | 10 | -0.040 | 6 | -0.033 | -0.007 |
| Ryan Parent | 28 | -0.011 | 18 | 0.006 | -0.016 |
| David Laliberte | 11 | 0.045 | 8 | 0.063 | -0.017 |
| Mika Pyorala | 36 | -0.017 | 26 | 0.015 | -0.032 |
| Braydon Coburn | 52 | 0.046 | 26 | 0.081 | -0.035 |
| Claude Giroux | 53 | 0.119 | 26 | 0.154 | -0.035 |
| Scott Hartnell | 52 | 0.081 | 26 | 0.119 | -0.038 |
| Matt Carle | 53 | 0.132 | 26 | 0.173 | -0.041 |
| Jonathon Kalinski | 10 | -0.020 | 3 | 0.033 | -0.053 |
| Oskars Bartulis | 39 | -0.021 | 12 | 0.033 | -0.054 |
| James van Riemsdyk | 50 | 0.130 | 23 | 0.191 | -0.061 |
| Brian Boucher | 15.1 | -0.152 | 5.9 | 0.203 | -0.356 |
| Michael Leighton | 10.9 | 0.477 |
The table is sorted by difference in GVT/G. Michael Leighton isn’t listed because his “Stevens” sample was when he played in Carolina. Needless to say, his numbers weren’t impressive.
Having Ray Emery, Danny Syvret, and Jeff Carter at the top of this list shouldn’t exactly surprise anybody. Emery got off to a hot start, got hurt but kept playing, and has been inconsistent since his return. However, this shows just how much that injury set him back. Syvret had also bounced back nicely until he got hurt against Dallas. Carter has obviously been the only top-6 forward contributing anything lately, showing just how big of a slump he was in to start the year.
Forwards
Carter is still his off his projected 0.21 per game rate and 0.25 rate from last season, but 0.19 per game is much more in line with where he should be. Danny Briere and Simon Gagne also find themselves improving, although neither can be thrilled with their output so far – especially Gagne, who is plugging along at 50% of his expected rate. Ian Laperriere has also improved his play drastically, nearly doubling his per game numbes since the regime change. It should come as no surprise then that his linemates have also greatly improved their score, with Blair Betts coming close to doubling his output and Dan Carcillo more than doubling his own. The same is true of Arron Asham.
On to the negatives: James van Riemsdyk, Scott Hartnell, and Claude Giroux have all seen their production fall drastically in the per game category. Having two of your top-6 decrease production is never good, but at least Giroux and van Riemsdyk are still at 0.12 and 0.13 per game respectively. Hartnell, however, has slipped to 0.08 per game, just slightly more than Blair Betts. Some perspective: JVR is contributing at the rate Hartnell was projected to. And Hartnell is at the rate Ray Emery has achieved since returning from injury. Who has looked better doing it?
Defense
As mentioned in the beginning, Danny Syvret has been the most improved skater since the Stevens firing. How improved? His per game rate for the entire season is now higher than Braydon Coburn’s. (Obviously, this is where more context would be necessary, so I’m warning you twice.) Not bad for a guy who played himself off the team earlier this year. Another big improvement came from Kimmo Timonen who is now beating his projection for the year. Lastly, while Chris Pronger is right in the middle of the pack, it’s important to note that his torrid pace to start the year (even earning him Norris Trophy consideration) has actually gone up since then. Marginal improvement, yes, but a ridiculously good rate nonetheless.
On to the negatives: Oskars Bartulis hit quite a rough patch and GVT sees him as contributing less per game than Ole-Kristian Tollefsen. [Insert criticism of system here] Matt Carle has fallen back to Earth much the same as JVR has, even though Carle is still well above his projected output. Lastly, Braydon Coburn has really regressed this year, now finding himself less than half of his projected per game rate. No matter what other reasons there are, I’m not sure if many of them justify a GVT/G lower than Danny Syvret’s. This is just a really bad season for Coburn.
Goalies
It’s safe to say Michael Leighton had quite a run while he was starting. Aside from that, Emery bounced back nicely as previously stated and Brian Boucher fell off pretty steeply. A lot of Boucher’s fall can be attributed to the team not playing in front of him, so there really isn’t much to say about the goalies. We already knew what this tells us.
Conclusion
There have been some important pieces of the team that aren’t producing as much as they were through the first 26 games, but there have also been those who stepped up. When James van Riemsdyk dropped off in production, Jeff Carter picked his up. When Oskars Bartulis dropped, Danny Syvret picked up. The same can be said with Giroux and Betts, Hartnell and Briere, Carle and Timonen, and Boucher and Leighton. The problem is that it isn’t enough.
In order to be better than average, this team needs to get everyone on the same page. Is there anything this team can do consistently? The answer so far appears to be no…
