Earlier we ran down the rules for potential 2017 NHL expansion draft will look like. Here are the quick basics again:
- NHL teams could lose one player for each expansion team added.
- Teams can protect 3 defensemen and 7 forwards OR 8 skaters regardless of position.
- Only one goalie can be protected.
- Players exempt are those with two or fewer years of professional experience, and likely exempt are those with no-movement clauses. But teams will likely need to use one of their protected spots on players with NMCs anyway./
So with the caveat that these rules aren’t final and that we don’t know what the Flyers roster will look like in June 2017 when this draft takes place, let’s make some smart guesses on what might happen here with the team and the expansion draft. Remember: some of these rules are still loose, so we’re making some assumptions here as well.
We’re going to assume that the Flyers will go the first route, opting to protect three defensemen, seven forwards and one goalie. It’s better to protect 10 players than eight.
Here’s our best guess at what their protected list would look like, then:
Protected Forwards: Claude Giroux (NMC), Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn, Scott Laughton, Michael Raffl.
Protected Defensemen: Shayne Gostisbehere, Michael Del Zotto (assuming they re-sign him beyond 2016-17), Radko Gudas (assuming the Flyers don’t sign some free agent this summer who is a better player than Gudas).
Protected Goalie: Steve Mason (also assuming he’s re-signed beyond 2016-17).
Key Players Who Are Exempt: Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Travis Konecny, Samuel Morin, Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Oskar Lindblom, Robert Hagg and any other players who are not yet at the pro level.
Unprotected Forwards: Matt Read, Nick Cousins, R.J. Umberger, Sam Gagner (if they re-sign him), Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Chris VandeVelde, Taylor Leier and a whole host of minor leaguers who won’t get taken in an expansion draft.
Unprotected Defensemen: Mark Streit, Andrew MacDonald, Nick Schultz, Evgeny Medvedev (if they re-sign him), Brandon Manning, Mark Alt and a whole host of minor leaguers who won’t get taken in an expansion draft.
Unprotected Goalies: Michal Neuvirth, Anthony Stolarz.
There are definitely some assumptions we’re making, which you are more than welcome to disagree with in the comments. Gudas over Manning (or Medvedev if he’s here) seems safe-ish. Up front, we view Raffl as more valuable than Read or Cousins at this stage because of the role he plays.
There are players here that are left unprotected that the Flyers wouldn’t want to lose, and that’s what the NHL wants. They don’t want a situation like we’ve seen in past expansion drafts where the teams created were terrible. If they’re asking for $500 million in expansion fee money from a Vegas team, you better believe that Vegas team is going to want the ability to compete relatively quickly.
Guys like Streit, Umberger, Neuvirth, Bellemare and VandeVelde will all be on expiring contracts if the Flyers don’t re-sign them. If the Flyers do re-sign any of those players, they’ll be legit options for an expansion team to take, but you can’t imagine an expansion team wanting to select a player who is days away from free agency.
So with all that said, Read or Cousins are probably the most vulnerable for selection under this scenario, although the Flyers would love a team to take MacDonald off the books. That’d be OK in the big picture — neither Read or Cousins make or break the Flyers now or in the future.
A worrisome possible pick would be Anthony Stolarz. If he puts another solid AHL season under his belt next year — he was an All-Star at that level this season — he could be an interesting option for an expansion team. Luckily for the Flyers, there should be a lot of good NHL goaltenders left unprotected around the league, and that might take interest away from a guy like Stolarz. But you never know.
