Morning Observations is a feature where we break down the previous night’s game with an analytical eye.
#1: Not a great advanced stat night for Flyers, but goalie play matters
One of the best-kept secrets in the NHL is that the Carolina Hurricanes are actually a pretty darn solid hockey team at 5-on-5. Whether you credit their young puck-moving defense, strong tactics from head coach Bill Peters, or the influence of BSH alumnus Eric Tulsky, Carolina has consistently drove play at even strength for the past year and change. They’re not the pushover that their poor standings performance might lead one to believe.
Last night followed that script. Despite winning 6-3, the Flyers lost all of the advanced metric battles, trailing in 5-on-5 score-adjusted Corsi For (39.06%), 5-on-5 Expected Goals (30.27%) and scoring chance percentage (35.14%). It’s tough to find an advanced stat that gave the Flyers the edge in last night’s victory.
So how did the Flyers come out on top? It goes back to the reason why Carolina has failed to make any noise in the standings despite their strong underlying metrics — goaltending. The duo of Cam Ward and Eddie Lack has been one of the league’s worst tandems over the past year, and last night it was Lack who delivered a dud of a performance. When a team faces Carolina, they don’t need to dominate play. They just need to keep it close and make up the difference by exploiting the edge in goaltending. After accounting for special teams, the Flyers only lost the xG battle 3.23-2.78, and that was tight enough for a good game from Steve Mason and a bad one from Lack to result in a Flyers’ win.
#2: When forechecking doesn’t work, speed in transition becomes necessary
The Flyers got out to a solid start last night, but by the latter half of the first period, Carolina seemed to have figured out the team’s plan of attack. Whenever the Flyers looked to employ their aggressive forecheck that sends two forwards below the red line to retrieve pucks on dump-and-chase plays, the Hurricanes’ skilled defensemen were deftly avoiding them and then sending their forwards back up ice with speed. It was a major contributing factor to the heavy pressure that Carolina was able to create in the back half of the period.
In the second and third periods, Philadelphia may not have driven play, but there was a clear shift away from simple dump-and-chase hockey and towards entering the zone with speed and possession of the puck. Unsurprisingly, it was the Couturier line — led by Jakub Voracek — who especially stepped up in this area. The entries might not have been as frequent as they were earlier in the contest, but they certainly felt more productive, both in terms of shot creation and goal scoring.
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#3: Scoring issues of early last season nowhere to be found
During the early portion of the 2015-16 season, the Philadelphia Flyers simply could not put the puck in the back of the net. Even a late season rebound could only push the Flyers up to 22nd in the overall league rankings. This year, however, the Flyers are having no such trouble scoring goals, adding six last night to jump to 19 goals in 5 games — just under four goals per contest. I asked Dave Hakstol after the game what differences he’s seen in terms of process that he believes has caused the improvement in scoring efficiency.
“It’s a different year, it’s a different team, it’s a different season. We have to do things more consistently on the offensive side but we have some good chemistry in a couple of areas. I think we are doing some things a little bit better off the rush. We are creating a little more off the attack. That involves our forwards as well as our defensemen.”
Compared with my tracking from last season, the Flyers are definitely generating more controlled entries in the early part of 2016-17 than they did in October and November of 2015-16. Going into last night’s game, Philadelphia was at a 47.86% Controlled Entry percentage as a team, a slight jump from the 45.14% that they finished with last season, and a big leap from where they were at the start of that year. My guess is that last night’s game will only serve to raise that team controlled entry percentage even higher.
#4: Is Brandon Manning actually good now?
We’re just five games into the 2016-17 season, but it’s getting to the point where we have to address the possibility that Brandon Manning may have taken a dramatic, sustainable leap in terms of true talent level. Through four games, Manning’s microstats were right in line with those of Shayne Gostisbehere, who led the Philadelphia defense in basically every category last year. Last night, however, was maybe Manning’s best performance. Not only did he score on a fantastic individual effort, he also helped to facilitate Voracek’s game-tying goal by winning a puck-battle deep in the offensive zone to keep a cycle alive. He didn’t get an assist on that one, but he still played a key role in allowing for the goal to occur. Manning’s +11.69% Corsi Relative at 5-on-5 speaks further towards the excellent game that he had last night.
The real question is what this means for Brandon Manning moving forward. Going into this season, he didn’t even have a long-term spot on the NHL roster locked up, and had a real chance of being sent to Lehigh Valley before preseason injuries and suspensions struck the club. Interestingly enough, Manning’s 2015-16 season did grade out positively by a number of advanced metrics, including Corsi Relative via Corsica (+2.11%) and CorsiRelTM via stats.hockeyanalysis.com (+1.5%). He just failed via the “big mistake” eye test so often that it was tough to imagine him becoming more than a #6 defenseman at the NHL level. So far this year, however, his performance in microstats has taken a big leap forward, and his performance via the eye test is night and day when comparing this season versus last. This could still just be a hot streak, but the longer it lasts, the more seriously we are going to have to take Brandon Manning as an NHL defenseman.
#5: Provorov was fantastic
After two straight games that saw a number of his mistakes end up in the back of the net, Ivan Provorov was facing down criticism for the first time in his young Flyers’ career. Even though the 19-year old defenseman had been the blueline’s best play-driver through four games, segments of the fanbase were already starting to wonder if Provorov was truly ready for the NHL level due to his highly-visible errors. His performance last night, however, should have went a long way towards convincing those skeptics that not only is Provorov NHL-ready, he’s likely one of the best defensemen on this roster.
From the start, Provorov was on his game. On a first period penalty kill, he broke up a Hurricanes entry, forced a dump-in, and executed a clear of the zone, all within about 30 seconds. His strong defensive play carried over to even strength as well, as his defensive zone passing was back to its usual hyper-accurate level after a bit of an off night in that area on Tuesday. His best came in the third period, when he sprung Matt Read for a breakaway (that eventually drew a penalty) via a perfect flip pass over the heads of three Carolina defenders. It’s no surprise that he finished with a defense-high +14.52% Corsi relative to his teammates in this one.
Of course, the two primary assists will get the most attention, and both were caused by seeing-eye wrist shots from the point that ended up being tipped by the waiting stick of a Flyers forward in front of the net. Unlike Gostisbehere, who leans heavily on his frightening slapshot at the point, Provorov is more about precision, letting loose shots that may not have the speed of a Gostisbehere bomb but probably have a better chance of getting through to the goaltender. Jakub Voracek and Matt Read were the beneficiaries of that precision last night.
#6: Ghost better, MacDonald not so much
In the season’s first few games, Shayne Gostisbehere had not quite looked like the dynamic Calder-nominee of 2015-16. Sure, he showed flashes of brilliance (especially against the Coyotes), but too often the Ghost Bear seemed hesitant with the puck rather than willing to push play at all costs like he did last season. The increased minutes and responsibilities in the absence of Michael Del Zotto and Radko Gudas may have played a role, but regardless, Gostisbehere hadn’t been at his best.
Last night was the return of the Ghost Bear. He finished with three points, all of the primary variety, and was consistently carrying the puck up ice and engineering controlled zone exits. But while this was the first time we saw the real Gostisbehere, it was also the first game of the season where Andrew MacDonald clearly looked to be dragging down his dynamic partner. MacDonald’s play with the puck was nothing special, and his positioning both on rushes and in the defensive zone was forcing Gostisbehere to do too much with the puck and in terms of pressuring Carolina players.
Ghost’s 37.93% Corsi For was not an accurate measure of the quality of his performance, to my eyes. On the other hand, MacDonald’s 31.03% seemed totally justified. The Flyers have just one more game without Radko Gudas, and then they’ll have to shuffle the defensive pairs in order to get him back in the lineup. My hope is that one such change is to free Gostisbehere from his current situation.
#7: VandeVelde still ahead of Lyubimov in pecking order
With Dale Weise suspended for the next three games, Roman Lyubimov checked back into the lineup, playing on the fourth line with Boyd Gordon and Chris VandeVelde. In limited minutes, Lyubimov impressed to my eyes, looking fast and strong and even generated a quality chance via a sharp angle shot that Eddie Lack wasn’t expecting. On the other hand, Chris VandeVelde was predictably average, with his most visible moment being a ghastly turnover in the neutral zone that sent the Canes on a rush.
But Hakstol showed his cards late in the third period, when VandeVelde actually took a shift with the top line as the Flyers looked to close out the contest. Lyubimov received just 4:40 of ice time at 5-on-5, while VandeVelde received 6:48 and added almost three minutes on the PK. It’s the same old story here — Chris VandeVelde isn’t going to leave the lineup unless one of his competition has an absolutely monster game, and even then, a scratching still wouldn’t be certain. He clearly retains the trust of Hakstol in key situations.
#8: Voracek looks poised for big season
In case you were still worried after four games, last night’s game should have convinced all still on the fence that the old Jakub Voracek is back. After a two-goal, one-assist performance, Jake now has seven points in five games to lead the Flyers. But it’s not just the raw numbers that is cause for optimism. Voracek is generating controlled entries, moving the puck well on the power play, creating chances via his passing ability, and even battling to the front of the net on occasion.
Going into the season, Voracek was an obvious candidate for a bounceback, as he was entering the year fully healthy after battling both injury and unsustainable bad luck in 2015-16. But being a candidate for a rebound year and actually having that season are two completely different things. Luckily for Flyers fans, Jakub Voracek has only delivered positive signs thus far that he’s back to being the elite winger that truly earned that massive contract last offseason.
#9: Steve Mason was stellar
His 0.900 save percentage on the evening won’t turn any heads, but don’t let the numbers fool you — Steve Mason delivered a very strong performance against the Hurricanes last night. While Eddie Lack faltered for his team, Mason made a number of big saves, especially in the third period as the Flyers looked to salt the game away. After beginning the season on the bench, Mason proved to be the first goalie in the tandem to receive two straight starts, and he justified his coach’s faith. As noted previously, the Flyers were projected to lose 3.23-2.78 by xG in all situations. While that means that Lack gave up way more goals than expected, it also means that Mason bettered his shot quality-based projections, a fact that should have been obvious to all observers of this contest.
#10: The Matt Read revival continues
Considering his stature both in the Flyers’ organization and among fans just one month ago, it’s amazing that Matt Read now sits tied for second with uber-prospect Auston Matthews in NHL goals scored thus far this year. Yet again, Read found a way to light the lamp, and yet again, it was due to the forward battling to the dirty areas. This time, he tipped an Ivan Provorov shot past Lack just as a Flyers’ PP expired for his fifth goal of the year.
Sure, a good deal of this is luck. After all, Read obviously isn’t going to hold a 33.3% shooting percentage for much longer. But it also feels like a cosmic reward for playing through injury in 2014-15 (even if Craig Berube should have sat Read down) and for an unlucky season last year. This early surge has likely earned him a long-term spot at wing on the team’s third line, and a place as the top choice to be Travis Konecny’s “defensive replacement” on line two in close games, a role he filled last night. Read’s not going to stay at the top of the NHL goal charts for much longer, but considering the fact that he’s already 25% of the way there, a third 20-goal season really isn’t out of the question.
