It is difficult to know where to begin with this one. Ivan Provorov made the news for many reasons this season. The Philadelphia Flyers value him as a top-pair defenseman upon whom the team can rely for big minutes and relatively consistent play at both ends of the ice. Yet, Provorov’s hockey skills were probably the least newsworthy aspect of his game.
At this point, everyone is familiar with the January 2023 Pride Night incident. While we are not here to rehash the debacle, it would be strange to ignore it entirely. The goal of these articles is to assess the players’ seasons in light of all the circumstances surrounding them. Brendan Lemieux didn’t join the team until March 3. Kieffer Bellows spent 60% of his season in the AHL. No doubt, Provorov’s decision to forego warmups that night had some effect on the team, even if the effect was confined to the locker room, the rumor mill, and the blogosphere. And that fallout is worth considering.
However, it would be somewhat unfair to grade Provorov’s performance based on that metric alone (if one’s locker room reputation is even a metric to begin with). In fact, it is practically impossible to quantify the correlation between off-ice antics and on-ice woes. We could talk about the controversy for months, and we certainly have, but there is little to no empirical evidence that his decision had any direct causal relationship on whether the team was any more or less successful at winning hockey games.
With that said, Provorov’s numbers aren’t much better than his personal decision-making.
Basic Stats
If you were concerned that the Russian would somehow end up with a glowing review, be at peace. Provorov failed both the eye test and the stat test this year.
Most notable about Provorov’s season is that he won the Perfect Attendance award and averaged just over 23 minutes per game. These are truly telling numbers. Almost no player emerged unscathed from the healthy scratches and benchings that came with the new tenure of John Tortorella. Outside of Provorov, only two players reached the 82-game mark – Noah Cates and Joel Farabee. Provorov also had the most minutes per game of any skater, followed by Tony DeAngelo who averaged 22:04 and Travis Sanheim who averaged 20:24. No doubt, DeAngelo and Sanheim were heavily used, but Provorov was always given the extra couple of shifts.
When you think about it, these numbers are fascinating. They not only reveal something about Provorov, but they also reveal something about the coaches and about the team as a whole. Let’s start with the coaches.
For some strange reason, Tortorella and the Flyers coaching staff liked what Provorov brought to the table. Early in the season, Kevin Hayes and Travis Konecny were benched while leading the team in points. Travis Sanheim was scratched for his junior hockey homecoming in Calgary. It wasn’t outside the realm of possibility to imagine that Provorov would take a seat himself. Yet, the coaching staff had a trust in and reliance upon Provorov that defies explanation.
For the past two seasons, Provorov hasn’t looked like the standout offensive defenseman that we once thought he would be. He’s never been a tremendous point scorer, but he averaged roughly .50 points per game in 2017-18, 2019-20, and 2020-21 seasons. Those certainly aren’t bad numbers, and if that level of productivity were to continue, Provorov could make a strong case that he deserves the minutes he’s been given. But those numbers have dropped off.
In all situations, Provorov averaged 2.4 on-ice GF/60 against a whopping 4.0 on-ice GA/60, and he bottomed out with a career worst 47% Corsi-For percentage at even strength. For an alleged renaissance man who gets 23 minutes per game, including significant power play and penalty kill time, those numbers are fairly disappointing.
Like many other members of the Flyers roster, Provorov has reached the “what really are you” point of his career. He’s been given the benefit of the doubt for several years now, but hopes are slowly giving way to reality. A player can only underperform for so many seasons before he loses the trust of the coaching staff. For example, Morgan Frost has consistently left more to be desired and likely would have earned a permanent spot in the AHL but for this season where he rebounded and showed some promise. What’s unique about Provorov is that he continues to garner the administration’s respect even though he is clearly not meeting expectations.
What do the coaches see in Provorov that we don’t? That’s entirely unclear. One possible explanation is that the team is simply too desperate, and it needs a reliable core. Of course, Provorov has done nothing to show that he deserves to be the defensive piece of that core, particularly when his departure from Philadelphia might be looming, but when every other player is on the hot seat, what other option do you have but to keep Provorov in the game?
In this sense, Provorov’s alleged trustworthiness is not a reflection of the coaching staff, but rather, it is a reflection of the team as a whole. As has been said in oodles of articles and podcast episodes, this team is missing high quality talent. It needs stability from the players who get the most minutes. No one would complain about a second pair that includes either of Cam York or Travis Sanheim. The problem arises when your first pair consists of Ivan Provorov and/or Tony DeAngelo.
The Flyers rely on Provorov as if he were a team leader, which wouldn’t be a bad idea if he could live up to the expectations. However, the 7-year career Flyer would apparently rather be anywhere else but Philadelphia.
This is where the locker room conversation becomes relevant. Truth be told, none of us know the details of Provorov’s personal life – his personality and character, his family life, his background, his work ethic, etc. We can only speculate based on well-accepted rumor. And indeed many rumors are very well-accepted. Provorov is widely believed to be hardheaded, emotional, and generally disagreeable, and the Pride Night controversy undoubtedly gave fodder to those opinions. People have questioned whether he gets along with his teammates, whether is docile to his coaches, and whether he is generally happy to be a part of this team.
Again, it is impossible to empirically measure how any of this would affect the on-ice performance of either Provorov or the team as a whole. However, Flyers hockey has reached rock bottom, and it should be questioned whether the team should continue granting such a controversial player priority status. The last thing this team needs is off-ice drama that could even potentially make the gameplay worse than it already is.
Three Questions
Did they live up to expectations?
From the upper deck: “No.” Plain and simple.
What can we expect from next season?
There’s a good possibility that Provorov has played his last game in Philadelphia. It’s unclear how Danny Briere could rationalize keeping Provorov around when he (1) doesn’t want to be here and (2) doesn’t perform like a $6.75 million defenseman. How would such a move affect the Flyers’ abysmal cap situation, particularly given Provorov’s declining trade value and the duration of his contract through 2024-25? That’s a great question, and Briere would need to figure out a creative answer. However, a successful rebuild will be defined by the ability to invest in what works and to part ways with what doesn’t. For example, younger players like Cam York made great strides this year. Maybe it’s time for Briere to plan for the future.
How do we grade their 2022-23 season?
This one is tough. Provorov certainly wasn’t good, but one could speculate that the Flyers defense might have performed even more poorly without him. Few players in the league are poised to bear such a heavy workload, even if Provorov’s management of that workload was largely underwhelming.
In my opinion, the off-ice antics are not a major factor in this grade, except for how the incident would have directly affected the locker room and the team’s play. No doubt, the locker room was affected, and I’m sure those effects leaked into the morale and on-ice play to some degree. But with no way to really quantify the fallout, it would be unfair to penalize him too heavily.
With that said, even a purely statistical grading of his performance is pretty low. Ivan Provorov simply isn’t what we all hoped he would be.
Grade: D
