Now that the guess the roster contest has closed, let’s take a look at what our readers are projecting.
Certain to return
Seven players can go ahead and put a down payment on a house: every single entrant had Betts, Coburn, Giroux, Meszaros, Richards, Timonen, and van Riemsdyk on their opening night roster. The name on that list that stuck out to me was Meszaros; there’s been tons of talk about needing to move an overpriced defenseman, but not one person suspected that the $4M/year #5 defenseman would be the target.
After the jump, we look at the players whose future is less certain.
Very likely to return
Six players showed up on 94-97% of the entries: Bartulis, Bobrovsky, Briere, Nodl, Powe, and Pronger. Even though very few entrants projected these players as leaving, it seems like a much less stable group than the first group, as it includes two free agents, a player who may soon be an extremely expensive 15-game backup, a player who played only 13 games last year, and two people whose contracts are going to be extremely burdensome in the coming years.
Carter’s excellent season and team-friendly cap hit make me think he’s more likely to return than a few of the above, but only 86% of entrants expected him back. Still, the ratio of articles published mulling Carter trades to number of people who think he will be traded is extremely high.
So who are the cap casualties?
Four prominent members of last year’s team were projected to be traded away or waived by at least 1/3 of the contest participants. Versteeg, Hartnell, and Shelley each appeared on 60-63% of the entries, and Carle is perceived as being more likely to leave than stay, as he showed up on only 49% of the entries.
And Bryzgalov himself might still be a cap casualty of sorts, as only 69% of our readers thought the Flyers would be able to sign him. His average projected cap hit on those entries was $5.45M/year.
Welcome to the big leagues, kiddo
Although they have a total of 6 NHL games among them, many readers foresee Erik Gustafsson (69%), Matt Read (46%), and/or Eric Wellwood (43%) as being on the opening-day roster in 2011-2012.
That gets us through the 22 players deemed most likely to play for the Flyers next year.
Other Phantoms
Eight other minor leaguers found their way onto a participant’s roster, led by Tom Sestito at 37%. Interestingly, even though he spent almost the whole year in the AHL, Danny Syvret was the most-signed UFA aside from Bryzgalov, at 29%.
Odds and Ends
Speaking of UFAs, Simon Gagne (26%) appeared on more rosters than Leino (23%). Both were perceived as having a cap hit in the $2.6-2.7M range. And they were more likely to show up on the Flyers next year than playoff star Zac Rinaldo or famous actor Dan Carcillo.
Carter’s most likely trade destination is clearly Columbus — four of the five people who left him off the roster had Voracek playing for the Flyers.
UFA signings were all over the place, but the other players to show up on at least three rosters were Talbot (1.1M avg cap hit), Montador (2.0M), and Jokinen (2.7M).
Only 6% think O’Donnell will reprise his role as #6 defenseman. Only 3% foresee the return of Walker, and nobody thinks Boynton is coming back.
And finally, speaking of people who showed up on zero rosters, how about our favorite sphinx-like, occult, Corsi-dominating, goal-scoring forward? The poor guy rocked it for our team this year, and we’re apparently more likely to trade for Tim Thomas (3%) than resign Zherdev.
